Hybrid Tactics and Malevolent Innovation: An Early Analysis of the New Orleans Attack
This analysis is based on currently available information, which is subject to change as new details emerge. The investigation into the New Orleans attack is ongoing, and the interpretations and observations presented here are speculative. They aim to provide a preliminary assessment of the incident and its potential implications, rather than definitive conclusions. Readers are encouraged to approach this analysis with caution and monitor updates from official sources as the situation develops.
On 1 January 2025, in New Orleans, a pickup truck reportedly rammed into a crowd, and the driver subsequently opened fire on police officers, injuring two of them. The suspect was reportedly killed in a shootout with police, although details about their identity remain unclear. The vehicle-ramming attack has resulted in at least 10 deaths and 30 injuries. There were reports of potential explosive devices found at the scene. The FBI is investigating this matter as an act of terrorism. Source If confirmed, this incident would be the first of its kind on U.S. soil in recent years.
Unofficial jihadist-aligned chatter online is claiming responsibility for the attack. Extreme right-wing sources are also reacting to the attack, with some expressing skepticism about the official narrative. They noted discrepancies between the statements of the New Orleans Mayor and the FBI, with the latter reportedly hesitant to immediately label the incident as terrorism. The right-wing sources on X and Telegram are highlighting the black fabric on a flagpole on the back of the pickup truck used in the attack as evidence of the presence of an IS (Islamic State) flag, suggesting a jihadist motive. However, this claim remains unverified and unconfirmed by any visual imagery or official sources. (UPADTE) "The suspect in Wednesday's deadly New Orleans crowd attack had an ISIS flag at the time of the incident", according to law enforcement sources who spoke to CNN. Source
The reactions from jihadist and extreme right-wing groups reflect their respective biases. Jihadist sources aim to claim responsibility and emphasize the attack's impact, while extreme right-wing sources focus on inconsistencies in the official response and potential jihadist connections, possibly to support their broader narratives about border and immigration issues, as well as governmental responses.
Official statements from local officials and law enforcement have highlighted the deliberate nature of the attack. Source The tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) of the attack show a hybridization of low-tech methods, such as vehicle-ramming attacks (VRA), with gunfire and potential IEDs in the vehicle at the time of the attack, although these were unused. Bollards were reportedly in place, but according to the New York Times, "The district attorney of Orleans Parish, Jason Williams, said in an interview on Wednesday morning that it was too early to say whether bollards were in place or if the driver had navigated around them." Source
The vehicle used was a Ford F-150 Lightning, an electric pickup truck. According to ABC News, "The electric truck with Texas plates was rented via the app Turo, a vehicle-sharing platform, from a man in Houston. Sources say the truck was then observed Tuesday in north Harris County around Treaschwig Road and Aldine Westfield Road around 10:15 a.m., and then again at 11:10 a.m." Source Renting a vehicle for a VRA is not a new TTP. However, if Turo was used by the perpetrator, this would be a novel TTP, as it would likely be the first case of a car-sharing app being used in the planning and execution of a mass-casualty or terrorist incident. Car-sharing apps provide a low barrier to entry for accessing and renting vehicles for mass-casualty incidents. Additionally, car-sharing can give perpetrators access to heavier electric vehicles, which might have prohibitive purchasing costs for the average user.
The use of an electric vehicle for a VRA is also a form of malevolent creativity in terms of TTPs. The F-150 Lightning weighs between 2,700 and 3,100 kg (a normal F-150 weighs 1,800 to 2,500 kg). Not only is it heavier than a gas-powered truck, but an electric vehicle is also silent and can accelerate quicker than a combustion engine due to instant torque. This means those in the crowd had no chance to hear the engine revving while it was accelerating. The truck could reach higher speeds faster over a short distance. Combined with its weight—comparable to an empty 4.5 m U-Haul—this makes it an effective vehicle for VRAs.
The New Orleans attack underscores the evolving nature of tactics, techniques, and procedures used in acts of mass violence. The potential use of a car-sharing platform and an electric vehicle highlights a shift in how perpetrators may adapt available technologies to their advantage. While the motivations behind this attack remain unclear, the competing narratives from jihadist and extreme right-wing sources reflect broader dynamics in the information space, where such events are leveraged to reinforce ideological agendas.
As this is a fluid and ongoing investigation, the full picture of the attack—including the perpetrator’s identity, motive, and planning—will emerge over time. This incident serves as a reminder of the importance of monitoring innovation in threat methodologies and the narratives that emerge in the aftermath. Continued vigilance and cross-sector collaboration will be crucial in addressing these evolving threats effectively.