Week in Review for Violent Extremism and Terrorism Analysis: 2023-02-20
Happy Monday everyone,
Going to start sharing a recap of some of the publications I have read about violent extremism and terrorism. Feel free to send my way recommendations for next week.
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1) Hannah Gais and Jason Wilson from the SPLC published a piece on Atomwaffen founder’s path to a terror plot following his recent arrest.
Using leaked chats and documents provided to them from the White Rose Society, Gais and Wilson dive into how AWD founder was an a fixture in accelerationist milieus as a propagandist who sought to influence and mobilize individuals to commit acts of terror.
2) The New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness published their annual threat assessment
- Homegrown Violent Extremists and White Racially Motivated Extremists remain the most prominent threats to New Jersey in 2023.
- White racially motivated extremists (WRMEs) will likely exploit military tactics, techniques, and procedures to gain combat experience, tactical training, and weapons proficiency. While WRMEs rely on recruitment of former and current military personnel, they also gain expertise through researching manifestos and online forums that justify their violent rhetoric and advocate attacking targets that oppose their views.
- Among domestic threat actors, abortion-related, anarchist, anti-government, black racially motivated, militia and sovereign citizen extremists pose a moderate threat. There were 27 domestic extremist incidents in 2022 to include attacks, threats, plots and weapons stockpiling. Lone offenders, who identify with varying ideologies, used their personal grievances against religious groups, minorities and law enforcement to justify violence and spread hateful rhetoric.
- Domestic and foreign threat actors will likely leverage mainstream and alternative social media platforms and encrypted messaging applications in an attempt to radicalize and motivate sympathizers, spread disinformation, encourage attacks and sow discord among the general public.
- Critical infrastructure threats remain a concern as domestic extremists prioritize attacking soft targets due to their easy accessibility and limited security measures. New Jersey’s soft targets include festivals, shopping centers, schools, houses of worship and transportation systems.
3) Meghan Conroy and Abbie Richards: Duelling Narratives of Vitality and Victimhood on Right-Wing TikTok: Exploring the #Pureblood Trend
The authors in this piece explore a TikTok trend surfaced wherein some anti-vax users have adopted the term ‘pureblood’ to proudly share their unvaccinated status as COVID-19 vaccines continue to act as a flashpoint for contention. They find that TikTok is home to a group of creators and audiences that weaponize both superiority and victimhood narratives that have been used throughout history to justify the perpetuation of discrimination and violence.
4) The Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats published an introductory guide to understanding misogyny and the far-right.
This piece offers an introduction to the growing body of evidence suggesting that gender identity and gender ideology are connected to extremism and terrorism, and that prevention strategies should consider the gendered dimensions of radicalization, recruitment and participation in extremist groups given the distinct experiences in these processes that can be enabled or constrained by gender.
5) ADL Center on Extremism (COE) released their Murder and Extremism in the US report for 2022.
- In 2022, domestic extremists killed at least 25 people in the U.S., in 12 separate incidents. This represents a decrease from the 33 extremist-related murders documented in 2021 and is comparable to the 22 extremist-related murders in 2020. It continues the recent trend of fewer extremist-related killings after a five-year span of 47-78 extremist-related murders per year (2015-2019).
- The 2022 murder totals would have been much lower if not for two high-casualty extremist-related shooting sprees. Only 10 of the 25 deaths occurred outside of those sprees—and one of those 10 deaths occurred in a less lethal mass shooting attempt.
- In 2022, 18 of the 25 extremist-related murders appear to have been committed in whole or part for ideological motives, while the remaining seven murders either have no clear motive or were committed for a non-ideological motive.
- All the extremist-related murders in 2022 were committed by right-wing extremists of various kinds, who typically commit most such killings each year but only occasionally are responsible for all (the last time this occurred was 2012). Left-wing extremists engage in violence ranging from assaults to fire-bombings and arsons, but since the late 1980s have not often targeted people with deadly violence. The same cannot be said for domestic Islamist extremists, but deadly incidents linked to Islamist extremism have decreased significantly in the U.S. over the past five years.
- White supremacists commit the greatest number of domestic extremist-related murders in most years, but in 2022 the percentage was unusually high: 21 of the 25 murders were linked to white supremacists. Again, this is primarily due to mass shootings. Only one of the murders was committed by a right-wing anti-government extremist—the lowest number since 2017.
6) Peter Nesser Introducing the Jihadi Plots in Europe Dataset (JPED)
In his newly published article Nesser introduces a new dataset on terrorist attack activity by jihadis in Western Europe. The dataset was built over nearly two decades at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. It records not only attacks that were launched, but also plots that were foiled by counterterrorism.
7) Isabel Jones and Milo Comeford Radical reinforcement: The January 6 attack and the methodology of hybridized extremism
In this piece the authors break down the spectrum of movements and ideologies related to the January 6 attack, how they reinforce each other and how this landscape has evolved in the last two years.
8) Ashton Kingdon and Emma Ylitalo-James Using social media to research terrorism and extremism
Lara Fromkin, John Morrison and Andrew Silke published a collected volume which seeks to ask vital questions concerning the future directions of terrorism research and dives into the current state, emerging methodologies and key trends of this emotive and controversial field. I haven’t read through the entire book yet. Chapter 9 was the first I read and it explores how social media research has a rich repertoire of methods through which to capture data to aid researchers in their understanding of extremist and terrorist activity.
9) Daniel Siegel and Mary Bennet Doty Weapons of Mass Disruption: Artificial Intelligence and the Production of Extremist Propaganda.
The use of generative AI has been all over the media in various contexts, and it is no surprise that threat actors have begun to use and develop these tools as well. The authors dive into the evolution of digital media use by violent extremists and terrorists, and what we can expect the impact of AI to be.
10) Jason R. Silva Ideologically motivated mass shootings: a crime script analysis of far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired attacks in the United States
This study uses a crime script analysis to examine far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired ideologically motivated mass shooters (IMMS) in the US (1970-2019). This work provides a comparison of incident rates and shooter backgrounds, as well as the preparation, execution, and conclusion of attacks. When comparing the three IMMS types, findings indicate far-right incidents were most common, far-left shooters were largely Black Nationalists, and jihadist-inspired shooters had more success in life (college graduates, employed, married, parents). During initial preparation, IMMS often leaked violent intentions and had facilitating conditions including criminal, domestic violence, and military histories. Jihadist-inspired shooters had more planning, and far-left shooters often accessed guns illegally. During attack execution, IMMS incidents often occurred in the South and involved open-space and/or unrestricted access locations. Jihadist-inspired shooters targeted government locations more often, while far-left incidents often occurred outside with law enforcement on the scene. During attack conclusion, IMMS incidents often ended quickly and involved gunfire with police. Jihadist-inspired shooters had a higher rate of victim casualties, and far-left shooters had a higher rate of police casualties. Far-right shooters had a higher number of victim and police casualties overall.
11) The Centre for Research on Extremism The Same, But Different: Policies, Perceptions and Practices of Multiagency PVE work in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland
This report by Tore Bjørgo, Randi Solhjell, Lasse Lindekilde and Jennie Sivenbring shares key findings from a joint Nordic study on multiagency collaboration, showing how teams from Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden cooperated to prevent violent extremism (PVE) across institutional barriers.
12) Rueben Dass and Benjamin Mok Assessing the Impact of 3D-Printed Weapons on the Violent Extremist Milieu
In their piece on 3D printing the authors find that 3D-printing firearms still has a high barrier to entry and is still far from a ‘plug-and-play’ solution for those seeking to commit acts of mass violence. 3D-printed firearms are still viewed with a certain degree of scepticism by factions of the far-right and are not yet regarded as an alternative to conventional firearms. However, there are growing repertoires of online resources such as videos, guidelines, and step-by-step tutorials on 3D-printing guns that are proliferating and easily available.
Have a great week and good reading.
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